Mixed messages continue to flood the digital airwaves as commentators, bankers, investment fund managers and others argue whether the Fed’s rate hikes were too high or not and whether we’ll have a recession. The saving grace they keep returning to is “but the economy still looks fundamentally strong and consumer spending remains strong”. That narrative is slowly changing as cracks and fissures appear in retail sales, industrial production and home construction falter. But I want to address the underlying logic, not the details